Why can't m2ts (h264/dts) content be streamed rather than transcoded to PS3?

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That's what we use tsMuxeR for - it takes the streams and remuxes them into m2ts so the PS3 can understand it. You might have to manually enabled tsMuxeR in the settings

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This seems like some good investigation you've done, thanks. I remember doing similar things a few years ago. We could never get tsMuxeR working well with all media types. We did our best by having different versions included but it was never perfect which is why we ended up disabling the engine by default. I'm willing to keep doing more research though if you are.

When you say "if I take the same mkv and re-package it as an m2ts with no transcoding (i.e. ffmpeg -c copy), it plays fine." are you using tsMuxeR at all in that process? If FFmpeg is completely working for this purpose then maybe we should start doing that instead of using tsMuxeR

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Here's an FFmpeg issue I created last time I looked into this, maybe they have fixed it but not yet closed the issue https://trac.ffmpeg.org/ticket/2515

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I am interested in making this into a supported feature of UMS, I'll post a build for you to try soon